Current:Home > ScamsThe job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing? -Summit Capital Strategies
The job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing?
View
Date:2025-04-25 12:26:17
The country's job market is finally showing signs of cooling – but it may still be a tad too strong.
That may sound strange. In a traditional economy, a strong labor market would usually be a good thing, but it's not so positive in an economy that continues to struggle with high inflation.
U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, according to data out on Friday. That's below the pace of recent months but it's still a very solid number.
And the overall labor market remains tight, with the unemployment falling to 3.6%, low by historic standards. Meanwhile, wages also continue to rise, increasing at an annual rate of 4.4%.
Here are some key takeaways from the Labor Department's June jobs report:
The jobs engine is shifting down
It may be a slowdown, but any month when the U.S. economy adds more than 200,000 jobs is a solid gain.
In fact, the economy may need the labor market to slow down further to help bring down inflation.
There are some signs that's happening. June's employment increase was the smallest since December 2020.
Job gains for April and May were also revised down by a total of 110,000 jobs.
In the first six months of this year, monthly job growth averaged 278,000 jobs — a significant downshift from the previous six months when employers were adding an average of 354,000 jobs every month.
But all in all, this is still a strong jobs market.
Why the labor market is still so solid
The resilience of the job market has surprised many economists given that the Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates aggressively to slow down the economy and bring down inflation.
But people continue to spend, especially on activities like eating out or traveling on vacation.
In fact, people are spending about twice as much money on services as they do on goods, and lately that gap has widened.
Spending on services rose 0.4% in May while spending on goods fell by 0.5%.
Employers pay attention to those spending patterns when deciding whether to hire more workers — and it was reflected in June's jobs data.
Service industries such as health care and hospitality continued to add jobs last month, the data showed, but goods-oriented industries such as retail and warehousing have been cutting workers.
The unemployment rate remains at historic lows
There was another sign of just how tight the labor market remains: The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in June from 3.7% the month before.
The unemployment rate has been under 4% for 17 months in a row — the longest such stretch since the 1970s.
The jobless rate has remained low even as more workers have entered the workforce.
The share of working-age (25-54 year old) men in the job market rose to 89.2% in June — matching the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of working-age women in the job market hit a record high of 77.8%.
Not everyone is reaping the benefits of the tight job market, however.
The unemployment rate for African Americans, which fell to a record low of 4.7% in April, has risen in each of the last two months, reaching 6% in June.
Here's more good news for workers: Wages are climbing
With solid job growth and low unemployment, employers are having to compete for workers with higher wages.
Average wages in June were 4.4% higher than a year ago. That matches the annual pay hikes in April and May.
Wages are not rising as fast as they did last year, but the good news is, neither are prices.
Annual wage gains in May outpaced price hikes, so workers' real buying power increased. (Inflation figures for June will be released next week.)
But a solid jobs market makes things harder for the Fed
Rising wages are good for workers, but the Federal Reserve is worried that if paychecks increase too rapidly, it could put upward pressure on inflation — especially in service industries where wages are one of employers' biggest expenses.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting in June, but signaled that might be just a pause and suggested that rates would likely need to continue rising to bring down inflation.
Now, with another month of solid job growth and rising wages, markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when policymakers meet later this month.
And more rate hikes could be in store should the economy continue to show signs of resilience.
veryGood! (985)
Related
- A South Texas lawmaker’s 15
- U.S. Mint issues commemorative coins celebrating Harriet Tubman. Here's what they look like.
- Woman convicted of murder after driving over her fiance in a game of chicken and dragging him 500 feet, U.K. police say
- 24 Hour Flash Deal— Get a $167 Amazon Fire Tablet Bundle for Just $79
- Opinion: Gianni Infantino, FIFA sell souls and 2034 World Cup for Saudi Arabia's billions
- Nikki Haley’s Republican rivals are ramping up their attacks on her as Iowa’s caucuses near
- A Colorado funeral home owner accused of abandoning dozens of bodies may be close to leaving jail
- Nick Carter says he's 'completely heartbroken' over sister Bobbie Jean's death: 'She is finally at peace'
- Don't let hackers fool you with a 'scam
- AP Week in Pictures: North America
Ranking
- See you latte: Starbucks plans to cut 30% of its menu
- MetLife Stadium to remove 1,740 seats for 2026 World Cup, officials hoping to host final
- Court records bring new, unwanted attention to rich and famous in Jeffrey Epstein’s social circle
- Felon used unregistered rifle in New Year’s chase and shootout with Honolulu police, records show
- Alex Murdaugh’s murder appeal cites biased clerk and prejudicial evidence
- Oscar Pistorius is set to be released on parole. He will be strictly monitored until December 2029
- 'The Bear,' 'Iron Claw' star Jeremy Allen White strips down to briefs in Calvin Klein campaign
- Travis Barker and Alabama Barker Get “Tatted Together” During Father-Daughter Night
Recommendation
The White House is cracking down on overdraft fees
Mississippi city enacts curfew in an effort to curb youth violence. Critics say measures are ineffective.
Dozens injured after two subway trains collide, derail in Manhattan
Bomb threats prompt evacuations of government buildings in several states, but no explosives found
Whoopi Goldberg is delightfully vile as Miss Hannigan in ‘Annie’ stage return
Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco's Date Night Is Nothing But Net
AP Week in Pictures: Europe and Africa
Israel's Supreme Court deals Netanyahu a political blow as Israeli military starts moving troops out of Gaza